Covid-19: national GDP is expected to fall by 12% in November, according to Banque de France

Covid-19: national GDP is expected to fall by 12% in November, according to Banque de France

For the non-food trade, traditional catering and recreational activities sectors, “the outlook is deteriorating sharply”.

A supermarket in Eure, May 8, 2020 (GODONG / BSIP / AFP)

The air gap is severe. The reconfinement is expected to cost the French economy 12% of its GDP in November compared to an activity known as “normal”, anticipates Monday, November 9 the Bank of France, with a plunge into catering, non-food trade and recreational activities.

“The loss of GDP for a typical week of activity (compared to the normal level before the pandemic) would be -12% in November, against -4% in October but -31% in April”, that is to say at the time of the first confinement in France, specifies the Banque de France (BdF) in its monthly economic survey conducted among 8,500 companies.

Leisure and personal services particularly affected

Faced with this new expected plunge of the French economy, all sectors are not housed in the same boat, however, warns the institution, some even risking a fate close to spring confinement.

This is the case for non-food trade, traditional catering and recreational activities, where “The outlook is deteriorating sharply”. Under the effect of the closures of shops on the territory and travel restrictions, catering activities should operate at less than 10% of their normal activity, and at less than 20% for accommodation, predicts the Banque de France.

These activities are the most affected, ahead of rental (equipment, automobile, etc.) and leisure and personal services (including recreational activities) which will run at less than 60% of their usual activity. However, the situation is less difficult for these various activities than in April, when they had operated at less than a third of their cruising speed.

Industry, agrifood and pharmaceuticals hold their own

Other sectors will experience a more moderate decline, thanks in particular to the novelties of fall containment which allows more flexible movements than in spring. This is the case of industry, whose activity has been “globally stable ” in October. Plummeted during the first confinement, and still in poor shape in October, aeronautics should experience activity close to 75% of its usual pace and the automobile around 90%, after having improved in October.

The food industry and pharmaceuticals, for their part, experienced a rate close to pre-crisis levels in October, and could increase to more than 90% of their activity. “normal” in November, after having already been relatively untouched by the first wave.

The building itself returned, in October, “Close to normal”. Business leaders do indeed welcome the flexibility offered on exit exemptions and the adaptation of the working environment to health measures.